Cox Automotive's latest forecast is predicting a rebound in U.S. new-vehicle sales for July, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) expected to rise to 16.0 million. This follows a significant drop in June due to widespread software outages that hindered sales and reporting.
"July new-vehicle sales are expected to finish within the range of 15-16 million, as it has consistently over the last year," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "However, July sales will likely include some sales that were delayed from June, which should push the market toward the upper end of the sales range. How much is unknown, but tens of thousands of vehicles may have been affected.
"Fleet sales are also unknown but will be an important factor in July's result," Chesbrough added. "Fleet sales can lift or suppress the monthly sales pace, and recent trends suggest less activity from this channel."
Last month's SAAR was 15.3 million, much lower than forecasted, due to disruptions caused by a cyberattack on CDK Global, which supplies point-of-sale software programs to 15,000 dealerships across the country. These disruptions prevented some sales from being fully completed and reported, which is anticipated to affect July's figures positively.
Kelley Blue Book sales estimates from Cox Automotive suggest July sales volume will fall to 1.29 million units, marking a 1.3% decrease from last year and a 3% drop from last month. Despite this dip, total new-vehicle sales for 2024 are projected to reach 15.7 million, the highest since 2019.
Through the first half of 2024, monthly new-vehicle sales have averaged 1.31 million units. While July has the same number of selling days as last year, it has one fewer than June, which could slightly impact raw volume comparisons.
