AAA predicts 54.6 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving---a 1.5% increase over 2021 and 98% of pre-pandemic volumes.
This year is projected to be the third busiest for Thanksgiving travel since AAA started tracking in 2000.
“Families and friends are eager to spend time together this Thanksgiving, one of the busiest for travel in the past two decades,” said Paula Twidale, AAA’s senior vice president of travel. “Plan ahead and pack your patience, whether you’re driving or flying.”
Most travelers will drive to their destinations, much like last year. Nearly 49 million people are expected to travel by car. While Thanksgiving road trips have slightly risen---up 0.4% from 2021---car travel remains 2.5% below 2019 levels.
Air travel is up nearly 8% over 2021, with 4.5 million Americans flying to their Thanksgiving destinations this year. That’s an increase of more than 330,000 travelers and nearly 99% of the 2019 volume.
“Airport parking spaces fill up fast, so reserve a spot ahead of time and arrive early,” Twidale suggested. “Anticipate long TSA lines. If possible, avoid checking a bag to allow for more flexibility if flights are delayed or you need to reschedule.”
Americans are also ramping up travel by other modes of transportation. More than 1.4 million travelers are going out of town for Thanksgiving by bus, train or cruise ship. That’s an increase of 23% from 2021 and 96% of the 2019 volume.
“With travel restrictions lifted and more people comfortable taking public transportation again, it’s no surprise buses, trains and cruises are coming back in a big way,” Twidale said. “Regardless of the mode of transportation you have chosen, expect crowds during your trip and at your destination. If your schedule is flexible, consider off-peak travel times during the holiday rush.”
Busiest Corridors and Best/Worst Times to Travel
INRIX expects severe congestion in several U.S. metro areas, with some drivers experiencing more than double normal delays. Highways in and around Atlanta, Chicago, New York City and Los Angeles will be the busiest.
To avoid the most hectic times, INRIX recommends traveling early in the morning Nov. 23 or before 11 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day and avoiding travel between 4-8 p.m. Nov. 25-27.
“Thanksgiving is one of the busiest holidays for road trips, and this year will be no different,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst, INRIX. “Although travel times will peak on Wednesday afternoon nationally, travelers should expect much heavier than normal congestion throughout the holiday weekend. Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic.”
Travel Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s proprietary databases.
These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment; output; household net worth; asset prices, including stock indices; interest rates; housing market indicators; and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel and hotel stays. AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of Oct. 10.
Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period
For purposes of this forecast, the Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the five-day period from Nov. 23-27. The Wednesday to Sunday period is consistent with previous years.
Source: AAA
