Following a slow January, the U.S. new-vehicle market is poised for a modest rebound in February, according to a forecast from Cox Automotive. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for February is projected to reach 16.3 million, up from 15.6 million in January and an improvement over the 15.7 million recorded in February 2024. This would mark the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year sales pace growth.
Despite having one fewer selling day than last year, February’s sales volume is expected to remain relatively stable, with a stronger adjusted sales pace. According to Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough, several factors contributed to January’s decline, including adverse weather conditions and significant national events.
"New-vehicle sales have remained relatively strong since the election, finishing 2024 at the highest pace recorded since spring 2021," Chesbrough said. "January sales dropped off from December, however, as cold weather across much of the country likely caused some buyers to delay their purchase. In addition, California fires and the inauguration in January may have also kept some shoppers at home. Many of those buyers are likely to return this month, which will help lift the February sales pace."
Looking ahead, Cox Automotive anticipates a gradual increase in new-vehicle sales throughout 2025, with total sales projected to reach 16.3 million units by year’s end, a nearly 2% gain from 2024’s total of just over 16.0 million units. Strong economic growth and improving buying conditions are expected to support the upward trend.
However, Chesbrough cautioned that policy changes under the new Trump administration, particularly regarding tariffs and battery electric vehicle incentives, could introduce market uncertainties.
"Though we are still optimistic about market growth in 2025, policy changes regarding tariffs and battery electric vehicle credits by the new Trump administration could have significant negative effects on the current outlook," he noted.
