November 2024 is expected to record new-vehicle sales in the U.S. of 1.32 million units, a 6.6% increase compared to the same month last year, according to a Cox Automotive forecast. However, sales volume is expected to decline 1.3% from October, a shift attributed to a difference in selling days.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for November is expected to remain steady at 16.0 million, maintaining October’s pace and surpassing November 2023’s SAAR of 15.5 million.
“With the U.S. election now in the rearview mirror, we may see vehicle sales finish the year in a strong position,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Consumer confidence is moving higher, which will likely increase consumer willingness to buy a new vehicle.”
Inventory and Incentives
For the first time since the pandemic, new-vehicle inventory topped 3.0 million units at the start of November, a 677,000-unit increase year-over-year. The increase contributed to higher sales incentives, which rose to 7.7% of the average transaction price in October -- the highest level since April 2021 and the fifth consecutive month of growth.
The supply of new vehicles now averages 85 days, up 10 days from last year, giving consumers more options at competitive prices.
EV Market Trends
The forecast suggests a surge in electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales through the end of the year. Speculation around potential changes to federal tax credits in 2025 has prompted buyers to take advantage of current discounts.
“There is concern that federal tax credits for EVs and PHEVs may be reduced or eliminated when the new administration takes office,” Chesbrough explained. “As a result, EV sales may experience some tailwinds, leading to robust activity through the end of the year.”
Segment Highlights
Compact cars sales are expected to be up 15.5% from November 2023, while sales of mid-size cars are forecasted to grow by 10.8% and full-size pickups by 7.4% in the same period.
