After months of turbulence caused by multiple hurricanes, cyber breaches and economic uncertainties, new-vehicle inventories in the U.S. are beginning to resemble pre-pandemic conditions. According to recent data from vAuto Live Market View, the days’ supply of new vehicles opened October at 81 days, just one day more than October 2019’s 80 days, in contrast to the supply shortages seen over the past few years.
The total U.S. supply of unsold new vehicles stood at 2.76 million units at the start of October, marking a 25% year-over-year increase, though it remains 20% below 2019 levels. Most dealerships now report that 37% of their showroom inventory consists of 2025 model year vehicles, and automakers are increasing incentives to push older models off the lot.
Incentive spending has also seen modest growth. According to Kelley Blue Book, incentives averaged 7.3% of the average transaction price ($3,522) in September, up slightly from 7.2% in August and significantly higher than last year’s 4.8%. However, the current incentive rate remains below the 10.3% seen in 2019, suggesting there’s room for manufacturers to increase incentives if market conditions worsen.
Automakers like Stellantis are actively managing their inventory levels to keep up with demand. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares recently reaffirmed his goal of reducing U.S. inventories to below 350,000 units by year’s end. Dodge, in particular, has made strides in reducing its prior model year inventory, which dropped from 22.5% in September to 19.1% in October, while its days’ supply fell by 18 days to 131.
Despite the industry’s challenges, vehicle prices remain stable. The average listing price for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $47,823 in October, representing a 2% month-over-month increase. The average transaction price for September came in slightly higher at $48,397, up 0.8% from August. Analysts attribute the price increases to the introduction of 2025 models and a tightening used-vehicle market.
Meanwhile, consumer demand for affordable vehicles remains strong, with smaller SUVs like the Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4 and Chevrolet Trax performing well in the sub-$40,000 segment. The popularity of full-size trucks and SUVs, such as the GMC Sierra 1500, remains robust despite higher price points.
As the market looks toward the final months of the year, optimism is high. With consumer sentiment at a three-year peak and interest rates projected to fall, both dealers and consumers could see financial relief in the coming months.
