New-vehicle sales in January 2025 are expected to slow considerably from December but maintain year-over-year growth, according to a Cox Automotive forecast. The firm projects January’s sales volume to reach 1.125 million units, marking a steep 25.3% decline from December but a 5.2% increase compared to January 2024.
Cox Automotive estimates the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for January will reach 15.8 million, an improvement over last year’s 15.0 million but down from December’s 16.8 million. If realized, this would be the highest January SAAR in three years, signaling continued market strength despite expected short-term fluctuations.
"New-vehicle sales have been strong since the election, but they are expected to moderate slightly this month," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "Sales pace in November and December were at the highest levels we've seen since the spring of 2021, but a dip this month is likely."
Chesbrough also noted that January is traditionally a low-volume month, and extreme winter weather -- along with wildfires in the West -- could further dampen consumer activity. However, inventory and incentives remain stronger than a year ago, which may help mitigate some of the seasonal slowdown.
New-Vehicle Inventory Trends
According to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Live Market View data, U.S. new-vehicle inventory stood at 2.88 million units at the start of January, marking the first time since October that levels fell below 3 million. While inventory is tightening, it remains higher than last year, allowing dealers to continue offering incentives to attract buyers.
2025 Market Outlook
Looking ahead, Cox Automotive expects new light-vehicle sales to increase modestly in 2025, reaching 16.3 million units by year’s end -- an improvement of 2%-3% over 2024. Positive economic growth and improved buying conditions are expected to support this trend. However, policy changes under the Trump administration, including potential tariff adjustments and shifts in EV tax credits, could create headwinds in the latter half of the year.
While January is shaping up to be a slower sales month, the broader market appears poised for steady growth throughout 2025, barring unexpected economic or policy disruptions.
