U.S. consumer sentiment fell in August for the first time in three months, according to the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers. Days later, Cox Automotive reported that new-vehicle sales for the same month came in above its forecast, with the sales pace improving over July.
The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reported that its final Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51.7 in August, down 6.3% from July's reading of 55.2 and 11.2% below its level a year earlier. The decline snapped two consecutive months of improvement following a record low in May, amid what survey director Joanne Hsu described as "continued worries that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future."
Vehicle sales pace improves over July
Despite the drop in sentiment, Cox Automotive reported that August new-vehicle sales outperformed its own projections and picked up pace from the prior month.
In a Sept. 2 update to its August sales forecast, the company said early estimates put the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, at 16.8 million, above its forecast of 16.3 million issued Aug. 25. That figure also marked an increase from July's actual SAAR of 16.3 million, which Cox Automotive reported in an Aug. 4 update came in below its 16.7 million forecast for that month.
In the original Aug. 25 forecast, Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, addressed the same gap between sentiment and sales that the later results confirmed.
"High gas prices, interest rates that are trending higher, and historically low consumer confidence have not discouraged new-vehicle buyers from making a major purchase as much as might be expected," Chesbrough said. "The current market continues to remind us that new-vehicle buyers today are more affluent, with excellent credit or cash reserves, and may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as other consumers."
Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jeremy Robb made a similar point in a Sept. 1 analysis, writing that "the automotive market remains more stable than many of the broader economic headlines suggest."
Robb noted that affordability extends beyond a vehicle's sticker price, pointing to rising insurance premiums, repair and maintenance costs, and fuel expenses as factors squeezing household budgets alongside vehicle prices.
He also pointed to growing demand for vehicles that are "8, 9 or even 10 years old." "Consumers are looking for something affordable," Robb said. "If they can get their hands on a $15,000 or $18,000 car, there's more competition in that marketplace."
Claims data shows a different trend
Cox Automotive's sales figures track new-vehicle purchases, not collision repair claims. CCC Intelligent Solutions' 2026 Crash Course report found that total loss frequency reached 23.1% of all claims in 2025, a new industry high. The report attributed part of that shift to consumers absorbing smaller claims themselves, citing higher deductibles and affordability pressure as factors that make lower-severity repairs increasingly discretionary rather than automatic insurance claims.
Separately, J.D. Power's 2025 U.S. Auto Claims Satisfaction Study, cited in earlier coverage of 2025 industry data, found that 26% of auto insurance customers carried deductibles of $1,000 or more and 7% said they had avoided filing a claim out of concern it would raise their rates.
