Cox Automotive’s mid-July Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) shows wholesale prices fell 0.7% (seasonally adjusted) and 1.6% unadjusted in the first 15 days of July — the steepest mid July slide in five years. The index now sits at 206.9, still 2.6% higher than July 2024 but losing momentum as the market returns to normal depreciation patterns.
For collision repairers, declining vehicle values lead to higher total loss rates and fewer repairable claims.
When a vehicle’s Actual Cash Value (ACV) drops, insurers reach the total loss threshold sooner. In its Q1 2025 Crash Course Report, CCC Intelligent Solutions said total loss share hit a record in 2024 and is climbing further in 2025, driven in part by declining vehicle values.
Rising total loss frequency siphons repairable work out of collision centers. CCC data show repair backlogs and cycle times are already easing as more vehicles get written off instead of fixed.
Jobs that do arrive may skew toward newer, higher value vehicles (whose ACVs still exceed repair cost), increasing the percentage of estimates that include ADAS calibrations and advanced materials — good for revenue but tougher on cycle time and technician skill requirements.
Mitchell’s Ryan Mandell told Repairer Driven News it takes about 90 days for wholesale price moves to flow through insurer valuation models and hit shop work mix; the July drop is therefore likely to influence estimating decisions beginning in October.
Take Aways for Shop Owners
• Forecast workload dips in the fourth quarter as more older cars become economical write offs.
• Double check DRP scorecards; KPI targets tied to cycle time may tighten as easier jobs disappear.
• Lean into recycled and aftermarket parts sourcing—supply should loosen as salvage volumes grow.
• Upskill calibrations; the work that remains will skew complex and ADAS heavy, offsetting some unit count softness with higher hours per RO.
